THE JOSS REPORT 9/24/2006
Available Exclusively Through ClearTrade Commodities
ClearTrade®
Subscribe to The Joss Report:
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=30478
________________________________________
- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) GOLD
3) CRUDE OIL
4) 10-YEAR NOTE
________________________________________
- CHART WATCH
5) CORN
________________________________________
- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
________________________________________
- FUTURES WATCH
________________________________________
WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
________________________________________
The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
________________________________________
- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/27/06, I continued my discussion of March Sugar because of a weekly recommendation.
Between 7/5/06 and 7/10/06, March Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/27/06, March Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 15.27.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -10,128, posting a total open interest of 500,233 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk was $862.40.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position below 12.15 are advised to place stops above 12.40*.
Option traders who purchased March 1250 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position below 11.88 are advised to place stops above 12.40*.
Option traders who purchased March 1200 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective of 11.56 was met on 9/22/06.
# 3) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position below 11.47 are advised to place stops above 12.40*.
Option traders who purchased March 1200 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If March Sugar posts a price advance towards 11.69:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.40*.
# 5) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.24****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 12.24*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 10.96****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.55*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1100 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 9.70.
________________________________________
DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 8/27/06, I began discussing December Gold because of a pending monthly recommendation.
Between 9/5/06 and 9/6/06, December Gold posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
Two weeks ago I advised traders that December Gold had developed a possible bearish descending right triangle.
If this formation comes to fruition, our objective will be 547.00.
On 8/28/06, December Gold posted a sell signal at 627.40.
On 9/07/06, December Gold posted a sell signal at 640.90.
On 9/08/06, December Gold posted an unconfirmed sell signal at 615.40.
Be advised that December Gold must post a monthly close below 615.40 on September 29th to officially confirm a sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 15,342, posting a total open interest of 325,852 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk was $5,340.
The proposed trade risk this week is $1,740.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
The trading modules posted below are geared to the very aggressive trader.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 615.40 or below are advised to move stops to 598.10*.
Option traders who purchased December 590 puts are advised to risk 30% of market value**.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 605.30 or below are advised to move stops to 598.10*.
Option traders who purchased December 585 puts are advised to risk 30% of market value**.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 592.00 or below are advised to move stops to 598.10*.
Option traders who purchased December 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market value**.
# 4) If December Gold posts 580.70 and multiple closes below 576.00****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops at 598.10*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 570 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Gold posts a close below 565.10 and multiple closes below 563.50****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 576.60*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 560 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 547.00.
# 6) If December Gold posts 598.10:
Aggressive traders are advised to exit all short positions and refer to ‘trading module’ # 4.
________________________________________
NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL (CLX6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/17/06, I began developing ‘trading modules’ for November Crude Oil.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, November Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal’ top.
In addition, between 6/20/06 and 8/16/06, November Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.50.
On 8/16/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below the all important ‘M’ formation.
On 8/17/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a seventeen-month trendline at 74.05.
On 9/6/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below last year’s high (for the November contract) of 68.95.
On 9/13/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a two-year trendline at 64.70.
This product is for very aggressive traders and not for the faint of heart.
Very aggressive traders were and continue to be advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic miNY Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -36,531, posting a total open interest of 1,177,409 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for miNY Crude Oil futures last week increased by 7,993, posting a total open interest of 52,263 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a short position at 62.80 or below are advised to move stops above 65.65*.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established a short position at 61.00 or below are advised to move stops above 65.65*.
# 3) If November Crude Oil posts a price advance towards 63.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 65.65*.
# 4) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 58.65****:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.80*.
Our objective will be 57.90.
# 5) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 57.00****:
Very aggressive traders are advised to re-establish a short position, placing all stops above 60.19*.
________________________________________
DECEMBER 10-YEAR NOTE (TYZ6) / U.S. 30-YEAR BOND (USZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/10/06 I added the December10-Year Note to ‘Chart Watch.’
In addition, in the Joss Report dated 9/17/06 I added the U.S. 30-year Bond to ‘Chart Watch.’
In last week’s trade advisor, I advised the need to coordinate the 10-Year Note trade signal and the 30-year Bond trade signal before establishing a position.
On 8/16/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 106-200.
On 8/30/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 107-040.
On 9/14/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 107-150.
On 9/19/06, the December U.S. 30-Year Bond posted a buy signal at 111-05.
On 9/20/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 107-165.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for 10-Year Note futures last week increased by 47,589, posting a total open interest of 2,318,002 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for 30-Year Bond futures last week decreased by -17,152, posting a total open interest of 747,208 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk for the 10-Year Note was $734.37.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position in the 10-Year Note at 111-165 or above are advised to move stops below 107-160*.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who either added to their long position or established a long position at 107-290 or above are advised to move stops below 107-160*.
# 3) If the 10-Year Note posts a price decline towards 107-290:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing stops below 107-160*.
# 4) If the 10-Year Note posts multiple closes above 108-205****:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops below 107-290*.
Our first objective will be 109-035.
________________________________________
NOVEMBER ORANGE JUICE (OJX6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/10/06, I added November Orange Juice to ‘Chart Watch.’
On 8/30/06, November Orange Juice posted a daily sell signal at 184.20.
On 8/31/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 182.40.
On 9/01/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 180.20.
On 9/12/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 177.45.
On 9/19/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 170.45.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 429, posting a total open interest of 29,924 contracts.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk was $615.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 184.20 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 182.40 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 180.20 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 4) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 177.45 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 5) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 170.45 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
Our first objective is 166.95.
# 6) If November Orange Juice posts multiple closes below 165.50****:
Aggressive traders are advised to re-establish their short positions, placing stops above 173.75*.
Our objective will be 57.90.
# 7) If November Orange Juice posts multiple closes below 156.20****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 165.50*.
# 8) If November Orange Juice posts a monthly close below 153.50****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 160.60*.
Our next objective will be 151.25.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
**** (Very aggressive Traders can enter a trade position without multiple closes but are advised to use resting stop orders).
________________________________________
CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
Chart Watch includes markets developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
________________________________________
DECEMBER CORN (CZ6)
This week I’m adding December Corn to ‘Chart Watch’ due to a potential trade signal for October which will not be revealed until the close of business September 29th.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a sell signal at 250.75.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -22,800, posting a total open interest of 1,298,052 contracts.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk will be determined by the charts on September 29th.
Traders are advised to begin consulting with their account executive for an option trading strategy (both puts and calls - because the direction of the trade has yet to be determined).
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade December Corn are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
ClearTrade®
Subscribe to The Joss Report:
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=30478
________________________________________
- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) GOLD
3) CRUDE OIL
4) 10-YEAR NOTE
________________________________________
- CHART WATCH
5) CORN
________________________________________
- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
________________________________________
- FUTURES WATCH
________________________________________
WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
________________________________________
The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
________________________________________
- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/27/06, I continued my discussion of March Sugar because of a weekly recommendation.
Between 7/5/06 and 7/10/06, March Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/27/06, March Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 15.27.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -10,128, posting a total open interest of 500,233 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk was $862.40.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position below 12.15 are advised to place stops above 12.40*.
Option traders who purchased March 1250 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position below 11.88 are advised to place stops above 12.40*.
Option traders who purchased March 1200 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective of 11.56 was met on 9/22/06.
# 3) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position below 11.47 are advised to place stops above 12.40*.
Option traders who purchased March 1200 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If March Sugar posts a price advance towards 11.69:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.40*.
# 5) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.24****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 12.24*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 10.96****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.55*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1100 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 9.70.
________________________________________
DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 8/27/06, I began discussing December Gold because of a pending monthly recommendation.
Between 9/5/06 and 9/6/06, December Gold posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
Two weeks ago I advised traders that December Gold had developed a possible bearish descending right triangle.
If this formation comes to fruition, our objective will be 547.00.
On 8/28/06, December Gold posted a sell signal at 627.40.
On 9/07/06, December Gold posted a sell signal at 640.90.
On 9/08/06, December Gold posted an unconfirmed sell signal at 615.40.
Be advised that December Gold must post a monthly close below 615.40 on September 29th to officially confirm a sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 15,342, posting a total open interest of 325,852 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk was $5,340.
The proposed trade risk this week is $1,740.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
The trading modules posted below are geared to the very aggressive trader.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 615.40 or below are advised to move stops to 598.10*.
Option traders who purchased December 590 puts are advised to risk 30% of market value**.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 605.30 or below are advised to move stops to 598.10*.
Option traders who purchased December 585 puts are advised to risk 30% of market value**.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 592.00 or below are advised to move stops to 598.10*.
Option traders who purchased December 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market value**.
# 4) If December Gold posts 580.70 and multiple closes below 576.00****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops at 598.10*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 570 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Gold posts a close below 565.10 and multiple closes below 563.50****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 576.60*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 560 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 547.00.
# 6) If December Gold posts 598.10:
Aggressive traders are advised to exit all short positions and refer to ‘trading module’ # 4.
________________________________________
NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL (CLX6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/17/06, I began developing ‘trading modules’ for November Crude Oil.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, November Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal’ top.
In addition, between 6/20/06 and 8/16/06, November Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.50.
On 8/16/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below the all important ‘M’ formation.
On 8/17/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a seventeen-month trendline at 74.05.
On 9/6/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below last year’s high (for the November contract) of 68.95.
On 9/13/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a two-year trendline at 64.70.
This product is for very aggressive traders and not for the faint of heart.
Very aggressive traders were and continue to be advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic miNY Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -36,531, posting a total open interest of 1,177,409 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for miNY Crude Oil futures last week increased by 7,993, posting a total open interest of 52,263 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a short position at 62.80 or below are advised to move stops above 65.65*.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established a short position at 61.00 or below are advised to move stops above 65.65*.
# 3) If November Crude Oil posts a price advance towards 63.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 65.65*.
# 4) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 58.65****:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.80*.
Our objective will be 57.90.
# 5) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 57.00****:
Very aggressive traders are advised to re-establish a short position, placing all stops above 60.19*.
________________________________________
DECEMBER 10-YEAR NOTE (TYZ6) / U.S. 30-YEAR BOND (USZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/10/06 I added the December10-Year Note to ‘Chart Watch.’
In addition, in the Joss Report dated 9/17/06 I added the U.S. 30-year Bond to ‘Chart Watch.’
In last week’s trade advisor, I advised the need to coordinate the 10-Year Note trade signal and the 30-year Bond trade signal before establishing a position.
On 8/16/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 106-200.
On 8/30/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 107-040.
On 9/14/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 107-150.
On 9/19/06, the December U.S. 30-Year Bond posted a buy signal at 111-05.
On 9/20/06, the December 10-Year Note posted a buy signal at 107-165.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for 10-Year Note futures last week increased by 47,589, posting a total open interest of 2,318,002 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for 30-Year Bond futures last week decreased by -17,152, posting a total open interest of 747,208 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk for the 10-Year Note was $734.37.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position in the 10-Year Note at 111-165 or above are advised to move stops below 107-160*.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who either added to their long position or established a long position at 107-290 or above are advised to move stops below 107-160*.
# 3) If the 10-Year Note posts a price decline towards 107-290:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing stops below 107-160*.
# 4) If the 10-Year Note posts multiple closes above 108-205****:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops below 107-290*.
Our first objective will be 109-035.
________________________________________
NOVEMBER ORANGE JUICE (OJX6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/10/06, I added November Orange Juice to ‘Chart Watch.’
On 8/30/06, November Orange Juice posted a daily sell signal at 184.20.
On 8/31/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 182.40.
On 9/01/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 180.20.
On 9/12/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 177.45.
On 9/19/06, November Orange Juice posted a sell signal at 170.45.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 429, posting a total open interest of 29,924 contracts.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk was $615.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 184.20 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 182.40 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 180.20 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 4) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 177.45 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
# 5) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 170.45 or below are advised to move stops above 175.25* or exit their positions.
Our first objective is 166.95.
# 6) If November Orange Juice posts multiple closes below 165.50****:
Aggressive traders are advised to re-establish their short positions, placing stops above 173.75*.
Our objective will be 57.90.
# 7) If November Orange Juice posts multiple closes below 156.20****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 165.50*.
# 8) If November Orange Juice posts a monthly close below 153.50****:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 160.60*.
Our next objective will be 151.25.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
**** (Very aggressive Traders can enter a trade position without multiple closes but are advised to use resting stop orders).
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CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
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Chart Watch includes markets developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
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DECEMBER CORN (CZ6)
This week I’m adding December Corn to ‘Chart Watch’ due to a potential trade signal for October which will not be revealed until the close of business September 29th.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a sell signal at 250.75.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -22,800, posting a total open interest of 1,298,052 contracts.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed trade risk will be determined by the charts on September 29th.
Traders are advised to begin consulting with their account executive for an option trading strategy (both puts and calls - because the direction of the trade has yet to be determined).
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade December Corn are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
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* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
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ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
posted by trader1s | 7:01 AM
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