THE JOSS REPORT 8/27/2006
THE JOSS REPORT
WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
AUGUST 27, 2006
Available Exclusively Through ClearTrade Commodities
ClearTrade®
Subscribe to The Joss Report:
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=30478
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- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) NASDAQ
3) WHEAT
4) FEEDER CATTLE
5) CORN
6) SOYBEANS
7) CRUDE OIL
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- CHART WATCH
8)GOLD
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- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
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- FUTURES WATCH
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WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
At ClearTrade®, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested The Joss Report research and may be interested in establishing an account with ClearTrade. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
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The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
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- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
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NOTE:
Due to the upcoming Labor Day weekend, the Joss Report will return on September 10th.
Friday, most markets have early closings.
Monday, all markets will be closed.
Traders are advised to remember that products generally will post new highs or lows at the beginning of the week. However, due to profit taking, products may run from their lows or highs by week’s end.
In addition, if a product does not run from its lows or highs by the end of the week and month, traders are advised to view this as a continuation pattern.
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MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the 6/11/06 Joss Report I began discussing October Sugar.
Last week, I began discussing March Sugar because of the rolling of volume from October.
Between 7/5/06 and 7/10/06, March Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/12/06, March Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 16.87.
On 7/26/06, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 15.67.
On 7/27/06, March Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 15.27.
On 8/02/06, March Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 15.31.
On 8/07/06, March Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.81.
On 8/11/06, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 14.48.
On 8/16/06, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 13.29.
On 8/17/06, March Sugar reached our objective of 12.74.
For next week March Sugar has a weekly recommendation.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -3,364, posting a total open interest of 476,171 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The weekly trade risk is $806.40.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_20__2006.htm#sugar
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Major resistance above the current market price is at the ‘intra-month’ sell signal of 15.27.
Minor resistance above the current market price is at 14.20, which was last years high for March Sugar.
March Sugar has a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 13.39 – sell when trades 12.67.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established short positions for the past six-weeks in October Sugar have exited their positions.
Option traders who purchased October 1650, 1600, 1500, 1450, 1400, 1350 puts were advised to purchase October Sugar Futures at 12.00.
# 2) If March Sugar posts 13.39 and posts multiple closes above 13.59:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops at 12.67* and refer to trading module #6.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.08*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective will be a challenge of the 14.20 level.
# 4) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.34:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.38*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.73:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.96*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 15.27.
# 6) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.67:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops at 13.39 and refer to trading module #2.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1250 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.88:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.68*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 11.56.
# 8) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.56:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.68*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 9) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.24:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.88*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 10) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 10.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.56*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1100 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 9.70.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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SEPTEMBER NASDAQ 100 (NDU6)
In the Joss Report dated July 9th I added the September NASDAQ to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a weekly trade recommendation.
On 7/5/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily sell signal at 1592.50.
On 7/10/06, the NASDAQ posted a weekly sell signal at 1542.00.
On 7/12/06, the NASDAQ posted a close below June’s low of 1530.00.
On 8/14/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily buy signal at 1498.50.
On 8/16/06, the NASDAQ penetrated the weekly sell signal of 1542.50 (7/07/06).
The NASDAQ has a weekly recommendation for next week.
In addition, the NASDAQ is developing a potential monthly recommendation for September.
If the NASDAQ were to develop a monthly recommendation, ClearTrade clients and subscribers will be notified via email the evening of August 31st.
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1591.50 and 1593.00.
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1542.00 and 1545.00.
Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as their trading vehicle.
For several weeks I’ve alerted traders that on 8/04/06, the S&P 500 posted a monthly buy signal at 1289.60.
For next week the S&P 500 has a weekly recommendation.
Also, the Dow Jones has a weekly recommendation for next week.
Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk are advised to use the Mini products as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for NASDAQ futures last week increased by 181, posting a total open interest of 59,124 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Mini NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -22,796, posting a total open interest of 413,528 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed NASDAQ weekly trade risk is $3,850.
The proposed Mini NASDAQ daily trade risk is $760.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_20__2006.htm#nasdaq
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week the NASDAQ has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 1584.50 – sell when trades 1546.00
Traders were and continue to be advised to watch the progress of the S&P’s monthly buy recommendation.
In addition, traders for next week are advised to watch and coordinate the weekly recommendation signals in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones - which was sent via email Sunday.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on the daily buy signal of 1498.50 are advised to move their stops to 1546.00.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on the penetration of 1542.50 are advised to move their stops to 1546.00.
# 4) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a close above 1558.00 are advised to move their stops to 1546.00.
# 5) If the NASDAQ posts 1584.50: very aggressive traders are advised to prepare to exit their trade positions at 1593.50.
# 6) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1612.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing all stops at 1546.00.
# 7) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1629.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1584.50*.
# 8) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1646.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1612.00*.
Our next objective will be 1664.00.
# 9) If the September NASDAQ does not post 1457.75 or 1603.75 by the close of business August 31st and the December NASDAQ does not post 1508.00 or 1621.00 by the close of business August 31st:
Very aggressive traders are advised to prepare for a potential monthly recommendation for September in the December NASDAQ.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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DECEMBER WHEAT (WZ6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added December Wheat to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a monthly recommendation for July.
In July, December Wheat did not post a monthly buy or sell recommendation.
This left December Wheat with an explosive ‘coil’ trade for August and advised traders that a major move was imminent.
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/18/06, December Wheat posted our objective of 377.00.
This product is and continues to be for very aggressive traders.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and continue to be advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -8,229, posting a total open interest of 447,857 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal at 410.75.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal at 403.25.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 391.75.
# 1) On 8/18/06, December Wheat posted our objective of 377.00. Very aggressive traders who previously established short positions at 410.75, 403.25 and 390.25 were advised to exit their positions at 377.00.
# 2) Last week, very aggressive traders who re-established a short position at 390.50 on a price advance have exited that position.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who re-established a short position at 402.00 on a price advance are advised to place stops above 425.25*.
Option traders who purchased December 390 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 376.75:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 380 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 363.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 360 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 356.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 377.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 346.00.
# 7) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 346.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 364.00.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 291.50.
# 8) If December Wheat does not post a monthly close below 402.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to exit their trades and sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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DECEMBER CORN (CZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 7/30/06 I added December Corn to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a potential monthly recommendation for August.
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal.
This product is for aggressive traders.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for December Corn was $462.50.
The proposed monthly trade risk for December Corn was $1,700.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -10,743, posting a total open interest of 1,331,646 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_20__2006.htm#corn
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 260.75.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal at 250.75.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 250.75 or below are advised to place stops above 251.25*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 50% of market price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 247.75 are advised to place stops above 244.75*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 241.25 are advised to place stops above 244.75*.
Option traders who purchased December 230 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
# 4) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a price advance to 241.25 are advised to place stops above 244.75*.
Option traders who purchased December 240 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
# 5) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 233.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 251.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 230 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 225.75.
# 6) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 217.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 7) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 215.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 203.50.
# 8) If December Corn does not post a monthly close below 251.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to exit their trades and sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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OCTOBER FEEDER CATTLE (FCV6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added October Feeder Cattle to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a monthly recommendation for August.
On 7/31/06 and 8/4/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal.
On 8/21/06, October Feeder Cattle posted an unconfirmed weekly buy signal.
For next week October Live Cattle has a ‘coil’ weekly recommendation.
Traders are advised to watch and coordinate the weekly recommendation signals in Live Cattle as they will influence Feeder Cattle.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $1,025.
The proposed monthly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $2,275.
The 8/21/06 unconfirmed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle is $950.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Feeder Cattle futures last week decreased by -362, posting a total open interest of 32,397 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Live Cattle futures last week decreased by -473, posting a total open interest of 202,023 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week October Live Cattle has a ‘coil’ weekly recommendation: buy when trades 92.80 – sell when trades 90.65.
On 7/31/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal at 114.50.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal at 116.10.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 114.50 are advised to move their stops to 115.80* or exit their trade if October Live Cattle posts 90.65.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their long position or established a long position at 116.10 are advised to move their stops to 115.80* or exit their trade if October Live Cattle posts 90.65.
# 3) Aggressive traders who want to trade October Feeder Cattle or October Live Cattle are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (SX6)
In the Joss Report dated August 6th I added November Soybeans to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation.
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
Last week traders were advised that December Soybean Meal had a weekly recommendation.
In addition, traders were advised to watch the Meal trade signal because it might add more credence to the past Soybean sell signals or affect the direction to an upward bias.
On 8/22/06, December Soybean Meal posted an unconfirmed weekly sell signal.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for November Soybeans was $775.
The 8/10/06 proposed ‘intra-day trade risk for November Soybeans was $287.50.
The 8/16/06 proposed ‘intra-day’ trade risk for November Soybeans was $337.50.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 10,981, posting a total open interest of 354,380 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal at 592.75.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 576.25.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 566.25.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 592.75 or below are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 576.25 are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on a price advance to 573.00 are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market price**.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on multiple closes below 570.00 are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 560 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
Our objective of 560.00 was met on 8/18/06.
# 5) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 554.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 540 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 545.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 542.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 512.50.
# 8) If December Soybeans does not post a monthly close below 591.00:
Aggressive traders will have exited their trades and are advised to sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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OCTOBER CRUDE OIL (CLV6)
Two weeks ago I advised traders to be prepared and to begin watching several products that included Crude Oil and Gold.
I also noted that world events may have a major impact on these products and traders were advised to keep a close eye on the charts.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, October Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal.’
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
Between 6/28/06 and 8/15/06, October Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.00.
For next week October Crude Oil has a weekly recommendation.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic miNY Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -86,995, posting a total open interest of 1,122,955 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for miNY Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -14,084, posting a total open interest of 25,278 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders not for the faint of heart.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $1,960.
The proposed miNY Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $980.
The proposed Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $1,960.
The proposed miNY Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $980.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
On 8/16/06, October Crude Oil penetrated and closed below the ‘M’ formation at 74.00.
For next week October Crude Oil has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 73.76 – sell when trades 71.09.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 75.40 or below are advised to place stops above 74.00*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 74.00 or below are advised to place stops above 74.00*.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 72.20 on a price advance toward 72.95 are advised to place stops for this trade above 74.00*.
# 5) If October Crude post 71.09 and multiple closes below 71.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops at 73.76*.
# 7) If October Crude post multiple closes below 70.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 71.09*.
# 8) If October Crude posts multiple closes below 69.10:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 71.09*.
Our objective will be 68.00.
# 9) If October Crude does not post a monthly close below 74.00:
Aggressive traders will have exited their trades and are advised to sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
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Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?
Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
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DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
Last week, I added December Gold to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for September.
Next week December Gold has a weekly recommendation.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
ClearTrade Clients and subscribers will be informed of the potential monthly recommendation and risk via email on August 31st.
The proposed weekly trade risk is $1,250.
If you do not fit the potential risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -7,156, posting a total open interest of 306,171 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week December Gold has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 639.90 – sell when trades 627.40.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who want to trade December Gold are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
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CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AUGUST:
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- S&P 500
- E-mini S&P
- BRITISH POUND
- US 30 YEAR BOND
- 10-YEAR NOTE
- SILVER
- WHEAT
- CORN
- FEEDER CATTLE
- LIVE CATTLE
- LEAN HOGS
________________________________________
FUTURE WATCH
________________________________________
Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in August for September. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business August 31st and sent via email for September.
________________________________________
- NASDAQ
- MINI NASDAQ
- GOLD
- PORK BELLIES
- SWISS FRANC
- CANADIAN DOLLAR
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
'HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE "profit or losses" SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.'
WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
AUGUST 27, 2006
Available Exclusively Through ClearTrade Commodities
ClearTrade®
Subscribe to The Joss Report:
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=30478
________________________________________
- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) NASDAQ
3) WHEAT
4) FEEDER CATTLE
5) CORN
6) SOYBEANS
7) CRUDE OIL
________________________________________
- CHART WATCH
8)GOLD
________________________________________
- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
________________________________________
- FUTURES WATCH
________________________________________
WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
At ClearTrade®, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested The Joss Report research and may be interested in establishing an account with ClearTrade. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
________________________________________
The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
________________________________________
- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
NOTE:
Due to the upcoming Labor Day weekend, the Joss Report will return on September 10th.
Friday, most markets have early closings.
Monday, all markets will be closed.
Traders are advised to remember that products generally will post new highs or lows at the beginning of the week. However, due to profit taking, products may run from their lows or highs by week’s end.
In addition, if a product does not run from its lows or highs by the end of the week and month, traders are advised to view this as a continuation pattern.
________________________________________
MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the 6/11/06 Joss Report I began discussing October Sugar.
Last week, I began discussing March Sugar because of the rolling of volume from October.
Between 7/5/06 and 7/10/06, March Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/12/06, March Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 16.87.
On 7/26/06, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 15.67.
On 7/27/06, March Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 15.27.
On 8/02/06, March Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 15.31.
On 8/07/06, March Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.81.
On 8/11/06, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 14.48.
On 8/16/06, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 13.29.
On 8/17/06, March Sugar reached our objective of 12.74.
For next week March Sugar has a weekly recommendation.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -3,364, posting a total open interest of 476,171 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The weekly trade risk is $806.40.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_20__2006.htm#sugar
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Major resistance above the current market price is at the ‘intra-month’ sell signal of 15.27.
Minor resistance above the current market price is at 14.20, which was last years high for March Sugar.
March Sugar has a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 13.39 – sell when trades 12.67.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established short positions for the past six-weeks in October Sugar have exited their positions.
Option traders who purchased October 1650, 1600, 1500, 1450, 1400, 1350 puts were advised to purchase October Sugar Futures at 12.00.
# 2) If March Sugar posts 13.39 and posts multiple closes above 13.59:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops at 12.67* and refer to trading module #6.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.08*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective will be a challenge of the 14.20 level.
# 4) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.34:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.38*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.73:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.96*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 15.27.
# 6) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.67:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops at 13.39 and refer to trading module #2.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1250 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.88:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.68*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 11.56.
# 8) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.56:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.68*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 9) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.24:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.88*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 10) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 10.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.56*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1100 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 9.70.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
SEPTEMBER NASDAQ 100 (NDU6)
In the Joss Report dated July 9th I added the September NASDAQ to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a weekly trade recommendation.
On 7/5/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily sell signal at 1592.50.
On 7/10/06, the NASDAQ posted a weekly sell signal at 1542.00.
On 7/12/06, the NASDAQ posted a close below June’s low of 1530.00.
On 8/14/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily buy signal at 1498.50.
On 8/16/06, the NASDAQ penetrated the weekly sell signal of 1542.50 (7/07/06).
The NASDAQ has a weekly recommendation for next week.
In addition, the NASDAQ is developing a potential monthly recommendation for September.
If the NASDAQ were to develop a monthly recommendation, ClearTrade clients and subscribers will be notified via email the evening of August 31st.
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1591.50 and 1593.00.
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1542.00 and 1545.00.
Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as their trading vehicle.
For several weeks I’ve alerted traders that on 8/04/06, the S&P 500 posted a monthly buy signal at 1289.60.
For next week the S&P 500 has a weekly recommendation.
Also, the Dow Jones has a weekly recommendation for next week.
Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk are advised to use the Mini products as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for NASDAQ futures last week increased by 181, posting a total open interest of 59,124 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Mini NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -22,796, posting a total open interest of 413,528 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed NASDAQ weekly trade risk is $3,850.
The proposed Mini NASDAQ daily trade risk is $760.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_20__2006.htm#nasdaq
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week the NASDAQ has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 1584.50 – sell when trades 1546.00
Traders were and continue to be advised to watch the progress of the S&P’s monthly buy recommendation.
In addition, traders for next week are advised to watch and coordinate the weekly recommendation signals in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones - which was sent via email Sunday.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on the daily buy signal of 1498.50 are advised to move their stops to 1546.00.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on the penetration of 1542.50 are advised to move their stops to 1546.00.
# 4) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a close above 1558.00 are advised to move their stops to 1546.00.
# 5) If the NASDAQ posts 1584.50: very aggressive traders are advised to prepare to exit their trade positions at 1593.50.
# 6) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1612.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing all stops at 1546.00.
# 7) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1629.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1584.50*.
# 8) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1646.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1612.00*.
Our next objective will be 1664.00.
# 9) If the September NASDAQ does not post 1457.75 or 1603.75 by the close of business August 31st and the December NASDAQ does not post 1508.00 or 1621.00 by the close of business August 31st:
Very aggressive traders are advised to prepare for a potential monthly recommendation for September in the December NASDAQ.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER WHEAT (WZ6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added December Wheat to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a monthly recommendation for July.
In July, December Wheat did not post a monthly buy or sell recommendation.
This left December Wheat with an explosive ‘coil’ trade for August and advised traders that a major move was imminent.
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/18/06, December Wheat posted our objective of 377.00.
This product is and continues to be for very aggressive traders.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and continue to be advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -8,229, posting a total open interest of 447,857 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal at 410.75.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal at 403.25.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 391.75.
# 1) On 8/18/06, December Wheat posted our objective of 377.00. Very aggressive traders who previously established short positions at 410.75, 403.25 and 390.25 were advised to exit their positions at 377.00.
# 2) Last week, very aggressive traders who re-established a short position at 390.50 on a price advance have exited that position.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who re-established a short position at 402.00 on a price advance are advised to place stops above 425.25*.
Option traders who purchased December 390 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 376.75:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 380 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 363.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 360 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 356.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 377.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 346.00.
# 7) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 346.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 364.00.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 291.50.
# 8) If December Wheat does not post a monthly close below 402.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to exit their trades and sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER CORN (CZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 7/30/06 I added December Corn to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a potential monthly recommendation for August.
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal.
This product is for aggressive traders.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for December Corn was $462.50.
The proposed monthly trade risk for December Corn was $1,700.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -10,743, posting a total open interest of 1,331,646 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_20__2006.htm#corn
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 260.75.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal at 250.75.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 250.75 or below are advised to place stops above 251.25*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 50% of market price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 247.75 are advised to place stops above 244.75*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 241.25 are advised to place stops above 244.75*.
Option traders who purchased December 230 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
# 4) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a price advance to 241.25 are advised to place stops above 244.75*.
Option traders who purchased December 240 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
# 5) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 233.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 251.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 230 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 225.75.
# 6) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 217.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 7) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 215.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 203.50.
# 8) If December Corn does not post a monthly close below 251.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to exit their trades and sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
OCTOBER FEEDER CATTLE (FCV6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added October Feeder Cattle to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a monthly recommendation for August.
On 7/31/06 and 8/4/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal.
On 8/21/06, October Feeder Cattle posted an unconfirmed weekly buy signal.
For next week October Live Cattle has a ‘coil’ weekly recommendation.
Traders are advised to watch and coordinate the weekly recommendation signals in Live Cattle as they will influence Feeder Cattle.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $1,025.
The proposed monthly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $2,275.
The 8/21/06 unconfirmed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle is $950.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Feeder Cattle futures last week decreased by -362, posting a total open interest of 32,397 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Live Cattle futures last week decreased by -473, posting a total open interest of 202,023 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week October Live Cattle has a ‘coil’ weekly recommendation: buy when trades 92.80 – sell when trades 90.65.
On 7/31/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal at 114.50.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal at 116.10.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 114.50 are advised to move their stops to 115.80* or exit their trade if October Live Cattle posts 90.65.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their long position or established a long position at 116.10 are advised to move their stops to 115.80* or exit their trade if October Live Cattle posts 90.65.
# 3) Aggressive traders who want to trade October Feeder Cattle or October Live Cattle are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (SX6)
In the Joss Report dated August 6th I added November Soybeans to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation.
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
Last week traders were advised that December Soybean Meal had a weekly recommendation.
In addition, traders were advised to watch the Meal trade signal because it might add more credence to the past Soybean sell signals or affect the direction to an upward bias.
On 8/22/06, December Soybean Meal posted an unconfirmed weekly sell signal.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for November Soybeans was $775.
The 8/10/06 proposed ‘intra-day trade risk for November Soybeans was $287.50.
The 8/16/06 proposed ‘intra-day’ trade risk for November Soybeans was $337.50.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 10,981, posting a total open interest of 354,380 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal at 592.75.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 576.25.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 566.25.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 592.75 or below are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 576.25 are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on a price advance to 573.00 are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 30% of market price**.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on multiple closes below 570.00 are advised to place stops above 573.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 560 puts are advised to risk 20% of market price**.
Our objective of 560.00 was met on 8/18/06.
# 5) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 554.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 540 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 545.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 542.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 512.50.
# 8) If December Soybeans does not post a monthly close below 591.00:
Aggressive traders will have exited their trades and are advised to sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
OCTOBER CRUDE OIL (CLV6)
Two weeks ago I advised traders to be prepared and to begin watching several products that included Crude Oil and Gold.
I also noted that world events may have a major impact on these products and traders were advised to keep a close eye on the charts.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, October Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal.’
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
Between 6/28/06 and 8/15/06, October Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.00.
For next week October Crude Oil has a weekly recommendation.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic miNY Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -86,995, posting a total open interest of 1,122,955 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for miNY Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -14,084, posting a total open interest of 25,278 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders not for the faint of heart.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $1,960.
The proposed miNY Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $980.
The proposed Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $1,960.
The proposed miNY Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $980.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
On 8/16/06, October Crude Oil penetrated and closed below the ‘M’ formation at 74.00.
For next week October Crude Oil has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 73.76 – sell when trades 71.09.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 75.40 or below are advised to place stops above 74.00*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 74.00 or below are advised to place stops above 74.00*.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 72.20 on a price advance toward 72.95 are advised to place stops for this trade above 74.00*.
# 5) If October Crude post 71.09 and multiple closes below 71.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops at 73.76*.
# 7) If October Crude post multiple closes below 70.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 71.09*.
# 8) If October Crude posts multiple closes below 69.10:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 71.09*.
Our objective will be 68.00.
# 9) If October Crude does not post a monthly close below 74.00:
Aggressive traders will have exited their trades and are advised to sit on the sidelines.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
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Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?
Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
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DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
Last week, I added December Gold to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for September.
Next week December Gold has a weekly recommendation.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
ClearTrade Clients and subscribers will be informed of the potential monthly recommendation and risk via email on August 31st.
The proposed weekly trade risk is $1,250.
If you do not fit the potential risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -7,156, posting a total open interest of 306,171 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week December Gold has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 639.90 – sell when trades 627.40.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who want to trade December Gold are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
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CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AUGUST:
________________________________________
- S&P 500
- E-mini S&P
- BRITISH POUND
- US 30 YEAR BOND
- 10-YEAR NOTE
- SILVER
- WHEAT
- CORN
- FEEDER CATTLE
- LIVE CATTLE
- LEAN HOGS
________________________________________
FUTURE WATCH
________________________________________
Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in August for September. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business August 31st and sent via email for September.
________________________________________
- NASDAQ
- MINI NASDAQ
- GOLD
- PORK BELLIES
- SWISS FRANC
- CANADIAN DOLLAR
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
'HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE "profit or losses" SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.'
posted by trader1s | 5:27 PM
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