THE JOSS REPORT 9/17/2006
Available Exclusively Through ClearTrade Commodities
ClearTrade®
Subscribe to The Joss Report:
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=30478
________________________________________
- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) GOLD
3) CRUDE OIL
4) SWISS FRANC
________________________________________
- CHART WATCH
5) TEN YEAR NOTE
6) 30-YEAR BOND
7) ORANGE JUICE
________________________________________
- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
________________________________________
- FUTURES WATCH
________________________________________
WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
________________________________________
The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
________________________________________
- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/27/06, I continued my discussion of March Sugar because of a weekly recommendation.
Between 7/5/06 and 7/10/06, March Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/27/06, March Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 15.27.
On 8/17/06, March Sugar reached our objective of 12.74.
On 9/13/06, March Sugar posted a weekly buy signal.
March Sugar appears to have entered a trading range, consolidating between lows of 12.15 and highs of 13.40.
If a trading range is being established, then March Sugar’s main pivot will be 12.91.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 5,000, posting a total open interest of 510,361 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk was $862.40.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#sugar
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 9/13/06, March Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 12.91.
Major resistance above the current market price is at the ‘intra-month’ sell signal of 15.27.
Minor resistance above the current market price is at 14.20, which was last year’s high for March Sugar.
Scalpers are advised to sell March Sugar near last week’s high of 13.40 and buy near last week’s low of 12.38.
March Sugar’s main pivot will be 12.91.
# 1) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.38:
Scalpers will exit their positions and aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 12.38 and refer to trading module # 6*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.59:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 12.65*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.40*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective will be a challenge of the 14.20 level.
# 4) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.34:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.40*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 14.61.
# 5) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.73:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.96*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 15.27.
# 6) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.15:
Scalpers will exit their positions and aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 13.40 and refer to trading module # 1*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1250 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.88:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.38*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 11.56.
# 8) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.47:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.15*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 9) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.24:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.88*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 10) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 10.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.47*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1100 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 9.70.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 8/27/06, I began discussing December Gold because of a pending monthly recommendation.
Between 9/5/06 and 9/6/06, December Gold posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
Last week I advised traders that December Gold had developed a possible bearish descending right triangle.
If this formation comes to fruition, our objective will be 547.00.
On 8/28/06, December Gold posted a weekly sell signal at 627.40.
On 9/07/06, December Gold posted a daily sell signal at 640.90.
On 9/08/06, December Gold posted an unconfirmed ‘monthly’ sell signal at 615.40.
Be advised that December Gold must post a monthly close below 615.40 on September 29th to officially confirm a sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -9,488, posting a total open interest of 310,510 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed monthly trade risk was $5,340.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#gold
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 9/8/06, December Gold posted a monthly sell signal at 615.40.
Major resistance above the current market price is at 637.50.
Minor resistance above the current market price is at 611.50.
The trading modules posted below are geared to the very aggressive trader.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 615.40 or below are advised to move stops above 615.40*.
Option traders who purchased December 590 puts are advised to risk 70% of market value**.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 605.30 or below are advised to move stops above 615.40*.
Option traders who purchased December 585 puts are advised to risk 70% of market value**.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 592.00 or below are advised to move stops above 605.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 580 puts are advised to risk 70% of market value**.
# 4) If December Gold posts a close below 579.00 and multiple closes below 576.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 605.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 570 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Gold posts a close below 565.10 and multiple closes below 563.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 576.60*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 560 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 547.00.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL (CLX6)
In the Joss Report dated 8/13/06, I began advising traders to be prepared and to begin watching several products that included Crude Oil and Gold.
In the Joss Report dated 8/20/06, I began developing ‘trading modules’ for October Crude Oil.
On 9/14/06, October Crude Oil met our mid-term objective of 63.40 and traders were advised to exit all short positions.
Last week traders were advised that this week I would begin discussions on November Crude Oil.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, November Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal’ top.
In addition, between 6/20/06 and 8/16/06, November Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.50.
On 8/14/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 76.05.
On 8/16/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below the all important ‘M’ formation.
On 8/17/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a seventeen-month trendline at 74.05.
On 8/28/06, November Crude Oil posted a weekly sell signal at 72.30.
On 9/13/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a two-year trendline at 64.70.
This product is for very aggressive traders and not for the faint of heart.
Very aggressive traders were and continue to be advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic miNY Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week increased by 43,674, posting a total open interest of 1,213,940 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for miNY Crude Oil futures last week increased by 3,009, posting a total open interest of 44,270 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#crude
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/28/06, November Crude Oil posted a weekly sell signal at 72.30.
On 9/6/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below last year’s high (for the November contract) of 68.95.
On 9/13/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a two-year trendline at 64.70.
On 9/14/06, November Crude Oil met our mid-term objective of 64.09 and traders were advised to exit all short positions.
# 1) If November Crude Oil posts a price advance towards 68.95:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 70.54*.
# 2) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 62.80:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 67.35*.
# 3) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 61.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.80*.
# 4) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 58.65:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.80*.
Our objective will be 57.90.
# 5) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 57.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to re-establish a short position, placing all stops above 61.07*.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC (SFZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/10/06, I began discussions on the December Swiss Franc because of a weekly recommendation and a monthly recommendation for September.
Due to the weekly and monthly recommendations, the December Swiss Franc became a ‘top trade.’
Also…I explained last week the December U.S. Dollar had a weekly recommendation. Traders were to note that the Dollar moves opposite the Swiss Franc.
Please note that the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meets next week to determine if interest rates will remain the same.
On 9/05/06, the December Swiss Franc posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 9/06/06, the December Swiss Franc posted a weekly sell signal.
On 9/07/06, the December Swiss Franc posted an unconfirmed monthly sell signal.
On 9/07/06, the December U.S. Dollar posted a weekly buy signal.
On 9/15/06, The December Swiss Franc posted a low of .7995. Traders were advised to exit their short positions.
The December Swiss Franc must post a close at or below the monthly sell signal on the close of business September 29th to officially confirm a sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 27,959, posting a total open interest of 98,012 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk was $1,337.50.
The proposed monthly trade risk was $2,250.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#franc
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 9/06/06, the December Swiss Franc posted a weekly sell signal at .8159.
On 9/07/06, the December Swiss Franc posted an unconfirmed monthly sell signal at .8140.
On 9/07/06, the December U.S. Dollar posted a weekly buy signal at .8497.
On 9/15/06, the December Swiss Franc posted a low of .7995. Traders were advised to exit their short positions.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at .8159 or below were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at .8140 or below were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 3) Aggressive traders who added to their existing short position on a price advance to .8140 were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 4) Aggressive traders who added to their existing short position on a close below .8074 were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 5) If the December Swiss posts a price advance towards .8074:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or re-establish a short position, placing stops above .8141.
# 6) If the December Swiss posts a closes below .7995:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or re-establish a short position, placing all stops above .8074*.
Our objective will be .7963.
# 7) If the December Swiss posts multiple closes below .7885:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above .7995*.
# 8) If the December Swiss posts multiple closes below .7851:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above .7995*.
# 9) If the December Swiss posts multiple closes below .7823:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above .7973*.
Our objective will be .7777.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
Chart Watch are markets developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
________________________________________
DECEMBER TEN YEAR NOTE (TYZ6) / U.S. 30-YEAR BOND (USZ6)
Last week I added the December Ten Year Note to ‘Chart Watch’ due to a weekly recommendation.
On 8/16/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal.
On 9/06/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a daily sell signal.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a weekly buy signal.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
The trade signals are confusing, aren’t they?
Well - next week the FCOM meeting takes place and it appears that traders are nervous. Will the Federal Reserve keep rates steady as most expect? Will they change their customary language of vigilance on inflation?
What’s really confusing traders is that Crude Oil and the CRB Index are falling. This is good for the stock market - holding interest rates steady. However, falling commodity prices make me wonder if the economy might gain too much momentum and in turn - force the Federal Reserves hand in tightening rates to slow it down. (Note: the NASDAQ 100 last week reached our upside objective of 1664.00, posted from The Joss Report dated 8/27/06).
For next week the U.S. 30 Year Bond has a weekly recommendation.
Traders will need to coordinate the signals of the Ten Year Note from last week’s weekly signal and the 30-year Bond for next week’s signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Ten Year Note futures last week decreased by -435, posting a total open interest of 2,270,413 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for 30-Year Bond futures last week decreased by -30,231, posting a total open interest of 764,360 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for the Ten Year Note is $734.37.
The proposed weekly trade risk for the 30-Year Bond is $1,156.25.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/16/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal.
On 9/06/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a daily sell signal.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a weekly buy signal at 107-150.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 107-040.
For next week the December 30-Year Bond has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 111-05 - sell when trades 110-00.
Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines until the day after the Federal Reserve meets.
# 1) Aggressive trader’s who want to trade either the Ten Year Note or the 30-Year Bond are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOVEMBER ORANGE JUICE (OJX6)
Last week, I added November Orange Juice to ‘Chart Watch’ due to a weekly recommendation.
On 8/30/06, November Orange Juice posted a daily sell signal.
On 8/31/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 9/01/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal.
On 9/12/06, November Orange Juice posted a weekly sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 1,429, posting a total open interest of 29,668 contracts.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk was $615.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/30/06, November Orange Juice posted a daily sell signal at 184.20.
On 8/31/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 182.40.
On 9/01/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal at 180.20.
On 9/12/06, November Orange Juice posted a weekly sell signal at 177.45
# 1) Aggressive trader’s who want to trade November Orange Juice are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
ClearTrade®
Subscribe to The Joss Report:
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=30478
________________________________________
- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) GOLD
3) CRUDE OIL
4) SWISS FRANC
________________________________________
- CHART WATCH
5) TEN YEAR NOTE
6) 30-YEAR BOND
7) ORANGE JUICE
________________________________________
- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
________________________________________
- FUTURES WATCH
________________________________________
WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
________________________________________
The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
________________________________________
- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/27/06, I continued my discussion of March Sugar because of a weekly recommendation.
Between 7/5/06 and 7/10/06, March Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/27/06, March Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 15.27.
On 8/17/06, March Sugar reached our objective of 12.74.
On 9/13/06, March Sugar posted a weekly buy signal.
March Sugar appears to have entered a trading range, consolidating between lows of 12.15 and highs of 13.40.
If a trading range is being established, then March Sugar’s main pivot will be 12.91.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 5,000, posting a total open interest of 510,361 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk was $862.40.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#sugar
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 9/13/06, March Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 12.91.
Major resistance above the current market price is at the ‘intra-month’ sell signal of 15.27.
Minor resistance above the current market price is at 14.20, which was last year’s high for March Sugar.
Scalpers are advised to sell March Sugar near last week’s high of 13.40 and buy near last week’s low of 12.38.
March Sugar’s main pivot will be 12.91.
# 1) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.38:
Scalpers will exit their positions and aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 12.38 and refer to trading module # 6*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.59:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 12.65*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 13.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.40*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1400 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective will be a challenge of the 14.20 level.
# 4) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.34:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.40*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 14.61.
# 5) If March Sugar posts multiple closes above 14.73:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 13.96*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1450 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 15.27.
# 6) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.15:
Scalpers will exit their positions and aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 13.40 and refer to trading module # 1*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1250 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.88:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.38*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 11.56.
# 8) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.47:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.15*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 9) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.24:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.88*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 10) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 10.96:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 11.47*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1100 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 9.70.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 8/27/06, I began discussing December Gold because of a pending monthly recommendation.
Between 9/5/06 and 9/6/06, December Gold posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
Last week I advised traders that December Gold had developed a possible bearish descending right triangle.
If this formation comes to fruition, our objective will be 547.00.
On 8/28/06, December Gold posted a weekly sell signal at 627.40.
On 9/07/06, December Gold posted a daily sell signal at 640.90.
On 9/08/06, December Gold posted an unconfirmed ‘monthly’ sell signal at 615.40.
Be advised that December Gold must post a monthly close below 615.40 on September 29th to officially confirm a sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -9,488, posting a total open interest of 310,510 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed monthly trade risk was $5,340.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#gold
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 9/8/06, December Gold posted a monthly sell signal at 615.40.
Major resistance above the current market price is at 637.50.
Minor resistance above the current market price is at 611.50.
The trading modules posted below are geared to the very aggressive trader.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 615.40 or below are advised to move stops above 615.40*.
Option traders who purchased December 590 puts are advised to risk 70% of market value**.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 605.30 or below are advised to move stops above 615.40*.
Option traders who purchased December 585 puts are advised to risk 70% of market value**.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who established short positions at 592.00 or below are advised to move stops above 605.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 580 puts are advised to risk 70% of market value**.
# 4) If December Gold posts a close below 579.00 and multiple closes below 576.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 605.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 570 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Gold posts a close below 565.10 and multiple closes below 563.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 576.60*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 560 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 547.00.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL (CLX6)
In the Joss Report dated 8/13/06, I began advising traders to be prepared and to begin watching several products that included Crude Oil and Gold.
In the Joss Report dated 8/20/06, I began developing ‘trading modules’ for October Crude Oil.
On 9/14/06, October Crude Oil met our mid-term objective of 63.40 and traders were advised to exit all short positions.
Last week traders were advised that this week I would begin discussions on November Crude Oil.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, November Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal’ top.
In addition, between 6/20/06 and 8/16/06, November Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.50.
On 8/14/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 76.05.
On 8/16/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below the all important ‘M’ formation.
On 8/17/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a seventeen-month trendline at 74.05.
On 8/28/06, November Crude Oil posted a weekly sell signal at 72.30.
On 9/13/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a two-year trendline at 64.70.
This product is for very aggressive traders and not for the faint of heart.
Very aggressive traders were and continue to be advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic miNY Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week increased by 43,674, posting a total open interest of 1,213,940 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for miNY Crude Oil futures last week increased by 3,009, posting a total open interest of 44,270 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#crude
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/28/06, November Crude Oil posted a weekly sell signal at 72.30.
On 9/6/06, November Crude Oil posted a close below last year’s high (for the November contract) of 68.95.
On 9/13/06, November Crude Oil penetrated a two-year trendline at 64.70.
On 9/14/06, November Crude Oil met our mid-term objective of 64.09 and traders were advised to exit all short positions.
# 1) If November Crude Oil posts a price advance towards 68.95:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 70.54*.
# 2) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 62.80:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 67.35*.
# 3) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 61.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.80*.
# 4) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 58.65:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.80*.
Our objective will be 57.90.
# 5) If November Crude posts multiple closes below 57.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to re-establish a short position, placing all stops above 61.07*.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC (SFZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 9/10/06, I began discussions on the December Swiss Franc because of a weekly recommendation and a monthly recommendation for September.
Due to the weekly and monthly recommendations, the December Swiss Franc became a ‘top trade.’
Also…I explained last week the December U.S. Dollar had a weekly recommendation. Traders were to note that the Dollar moves opposite the Swiss Franc.
Please note that the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meets next week to determine if interest rates will remain the same.
On 9/05/06, the December Swiss Franc posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 9/06/06, the December Swiss Franc posted a weekly sell signal.
On 9/07/06, the December Swiss Franc posted an unconfirmed monthly sell signal.
On 9/07/06, the December U.S. Dollar posted a weekly buy signal.
On 9/15/06, The December Swiss Franc posted a low of .7995. Traders were advised to exit their short positions.
The December Swiss Franc must post a close at or below the monthly sell signal on the close of business September 29th to officially confirm a sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 27,959, posting a total open interest of 98,012 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk was $1,337.50.
The proposed monthly trade risk was $2,250.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_September_10__2006.htm#franc
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 9/06/06, the December Swiss Franc posted a weekly sell signal at .8159.
On 9/07/06, the December Swiss Franc posted an unconfirmed monthly sell signal at .8140.
On 9/07/06, the December U.S. Dollar posted a weekly buy signal at .8497.
On 9/15/06, the December Swiss Franc posted a low of .7995. Traders were advised to exit their short positions.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at .8159 or below were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at .8140 or below were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 3) Aggressive traders who added to their existing short position on a price advance to .8140 were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 4) Aggressive traders who added to their existing short position on a close below .8074 were advised to either exit their short positions or move stops above .8141*.
# 5) If the December Swiss posts a price advance towards .8074:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or re-establish a short position, placing stops above .8141.
# 6) If the December Swiss posts a closes below .7995:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or re-establish a short position, placing all stops above .8074*.
Our objective will be .7963.
# 7) If the December Swiss posts multiple closes below .7885:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above .7995*.
# 8) If the December Swiss posts multiple closes below .7851:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above .7995*.
# 9) If the December Swiss posts multiple closes below .7823:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above .7973*.
Our objective will be .7777.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
Chart Watch are markets developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
________________________________________
DECEMBER TEN YEAR NOTE (TYZ6) / U.S. 30-YEAR BOND (USZ6)
Last week I added the December Ten Year Note to ‘Chart Watch’ due to a weekly recommendation.
On 8/16/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal.
On 9/06/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a daily sell signal.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a weekly buy signal.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
The trade signals are confusing, aren’t they?
Well - next week the FCOM meeting takes place and it appears that traders are nervous. Will the Federal Reserve keep rates steady as most expect? Will they change their customary language of vigilance on inflation?
What’s really confusing traders is that Crude Oil and the CRB Index are falling. This is good for the stock market - holding interest rates steady. However, falling commodity prices make me wonder if the economy might gain too much momentum and in turn - force the Federal Reserves hand in tightening rates to slow it down. (Note: the NASDAQ 100 last week reached our upside objective of 1664.00, posted from The Joss Report dated 8/27/06).
For next week the U.S. 30 Year Bond has a weekly recommendation.
Traders will need to coordinate the signals of the Ten Year Note from last week’s weekly signal and the 30-year Bond for next week’s signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Ten Year Note futures last week decreased by -435, posting a total open interest of 2,270,413 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for 30-Year Bond futures last week decreased by -30,231, posting a total open interest of 764,360 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for the Ten Year Note is $734.37.
The proposed weekly trade risk for the 30-Year Bond is $1,156.25.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/16/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal.
On 9/06/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a daily sell signal.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted a weekly buy signal at 107-150.
On 9/14/06, the December Ten Year Note posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 107-040.
For next week the December 30-Year Bond has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 111-05 - sell when trades 110-00.
Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines until the day after the Federal Reserve meets.
# 1) Aggressive trader’s who want to trade either the Ten Year Note or the 30-Year Bond are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOVEMBER ORANGE JUICE (OJX6)
Last week, I added November Orange Juice to ‘Chart Watch’ due to a weekly recommendation.
On 8/30/06, November Orange Juice posted a daily sell signal.
On 8/31/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 9/01/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal.
On 9/12/06, November Orange Juice posted a weekly sell signal.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 1,429, posting a total open interest of 29,668 contracts.
Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk was $615.
If you do not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/30/06, November Orange Juice posted a daily sell signal at 184.20.
On 8/31/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 182.40.
On 9/01/06, November Orange Juice posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal at 180.20.
On 9/12/06, November Orange Juice posted a weekly sell signal at 177.45
# 1) Aggressive trader’s who want to trade November Orange Juice are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
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