The Joss Report

The Joss Report was first published as a trader’s commodity newsletter in 2000. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many Futures traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading week and month ahead.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

THE JOSS REPORT 11/13/2011

Traders are advised not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. If you do not fit this risk profile listed in each trading module, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. ***Multiple closes represents 4 business days for conservative traders.

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TECH TALK BY SCOTT R. JOSS (C.T.A.)*

MARCH SUGAR (SBH2)

The proposed trade risk for March Sugar next week is $4,883.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes above 28.59***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 24.80*.

# 2) Multiple closes above 29.86***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 25.38*.

# 3) Multiple closes above 30.60***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 26.18*.

# 4) Multiple closes above 31.18***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 27.70*.

# 5) Multiple closes above 31.90***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 28.35*.

Our objective is 32.39**.

# 6) Multiple closes below 24.01***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 28.35* and refer to trading module #1.

# 7) Multiple closes below 23.50***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 27.70*.

# 8) Multiple closes below 22.81***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 26.18*.

# 9) Multiple closes below 22.43***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 25.38*.

# 10) Multiple closes below 21.10***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 24.31*.

Our objective is 20.27**.

JANUARY CRUDE OIL (CLF2)

The proposed trade risk for January Crude Oil next week is $13,500.

The proposed trade risk for the January Mini Crude Oil next week is $6,750.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes above 100.62***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 87.14*.

# 2) Multiple closes above 101.62***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 89.05*.

# 3) Multiple closes above 102.12***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 93.14*.

# 4) Multiple closes above 103.50***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 94.22*.

# 5) Multiple closes above 104.09***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 99.30*.

Our objective is 104.58**.

# 6) Multiple closes below 83.12***:

Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines.

FEBRUARY GOLD (GCG2)

The proposed trade risk for the February Gold next week is $18,200.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes above 1820.80***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1639.00*.

# 2) Multiple closes above 1832.40***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1685.80*.

# 3) Multiple closes above 1849.70***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1739.10*.

# 4) Multiple closes above 1867.00***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1755.50*.

# 5) Multiple closes above 1890.50***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1806.60*.

Our objective is 1911.60**.

# 6) Multiple closes below 1607.30***:

Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines.

JANUARY SOYBEANS (SF2)

The proposed trade risk for January Soybeans next week is $4,475.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes below 1163.50***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1252.50*.

Our objective is 1135.50**.

# 2) Multiple closes below 1129.25***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1223.00*.

# 3) Multiple closes below 1114.00***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1207.50*.

# 4) Multiple closes below 1102.25***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1190.00*.

# 5) Multiple closes below 1088.00***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1167.00*.

Our objective is 1064.00**.

# 6) Multiple closes above 1283.75***:

Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines.

MARCH COCOA (CCH2)

The proposed trade risk for March Cocoa next week is $2,700.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes below 2523***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 2791*.

# 2) Multiple closes below 2444***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 2764*.

# 3) Multiple closes below 2426***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 2728*.

# 4) Multiple closes below 2374***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 2669*.

Our first objective is 2278**.

# 5) Multiple closes below 2262***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 2595*.

Our second objective is 1705**.

# 6) Multiple closes above 2796***:

Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines.

* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).

** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position before reaching this objective but are advised to remove any resting stop orders).

*** (Conservative traders are advised to wait for multiple closes (4 business days) before establishing a position and are advised to use resting stop orders.)

*** (Very aggressive Traders can enter a trade position without multiple closes but are advised to use resting stop orders).

CHART WATCH BY SCOTT R. JOSS (C.T.A)*

Chart Watch includes products developing potential trade signals or chart patterns that have not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find a trade signal that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this watch category are listed below and should be watched.

DECEMBER EMINI S&P (ESZ1)

The proposed trade risk for the December EMINI next week is $5,587.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes above 1294.75***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1185.50*.

# 2) Multiple closes above 1304.00***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1208.50*.

# 3) Multiple closes above 1314.75***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1254.50*.

# 4) Multiple closes above 1322.75***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1275.25*.

# 5) Multiple closes above 1334.25***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 1289.25*.

Our objective is 1342.50**.

# 6) Multiple closes below 1068.00***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1173.75*.

# 7) Multiple closes below 1050.75***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1160.50*.

# 8) Multiple closes below 1036.75***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1141.25*.

# 9) Multiple closes below 1002.75***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1119.75*.

# 10) Multiple closes below 991.00***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 1068.00*.

Our objective is 981.75**.

MARCH SILVER (SIH2)

The proposed trade risk for the March Silver next week is $33,500.

The proposed trade risk for the March Mini Silver next week is $6,700.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes above 35.700***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 30.000* and refer to trading module #6.

# 2) Multiple closes above 36.750***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 31.360*.

# 3) Multiple closes above 37.555***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 32.180*.

# 4) Multiple closes above 38.520***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 33.190*.

# 5) Multiple closes above 39.635***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 35.375*.

Our objective is 42.860**.

# 6) Multiple closes below 28.435***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 33.190* and refer to trading module #1.

# 7) Multiple closes below 26.150***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 32.180*.

# 8) Multiple closes below 24.980***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 31.360*.

# 9) Multiple closes below 23.935***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 30.000*.

# 10) Multiple closes below 22.840***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 28.500*.

Our objective is 21.320**.

DECEMBER 30-YEAR BOND (USZ1)

The proposed trade risk for the December 30-Year Bond next week is $11,906.

WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?

Below are possible trading modules for futures traders to consider next week:

# 1) Multiple closes above 147-00***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 135-05* and refer to trading module #6.

# 2) Multiple closes above 148-27***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 137-13*.

# 3) Multiple closes above 150-22***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 140-06*.

# 4) Multiple closes above 152-17***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 143-04*.

# 5) Multiple closes above 154-12***:

Traders are advised to buy, placing stops below 146-13*.

Our objective is 156-23**.

# 6) Multiple closes below 134-26***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 146-13* and refer to trading module #1.

# 7) Multiple closes below 132-25***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 143-04*.

# 8) Multiple closes below 129-30***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 139-26*.

# 9) Multiple closes below 127-20***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 137-13*.

# 10) Multiple closes below 125-28***:

Traders are advised to sell, placing stops above 135-05*.

Our objective is 123-27**.

* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).

** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position before reaching this objective but are advised to remove any resting stop orders).

*** (Conservative traders are advised to wait for multiple closes (4 business days) before establishing a position and are advised to use resting stop orders.)

*** (Very aggressive Traders can enter a trade position without multiple closes but are advised to use resting stop orders).

CURRENT TRADE SIGNALS FOR NOVEMBER:

- US 30-YEAR BOND

- SILVER

- GOLD

- SUGAR

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing trade signals to watch in November for December. By listing these products, traders can feed-forward with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.

Traders are advised to begin studying the weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts for the products listed below. Do not forget that between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.

Potential trade signals for December will be revealed on the close of business November 30th.

- Potential trade signals for December will be posted in future newsletters.

* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).

** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position before reaching this objective but are advised to remove any resting stop orders).

*** (Conservative traders are advised to wait for multiple closes (4 business days) before establishing a position but and advised to use resting stop orders.)

*** (Very aggressive Traders can enter a trade position without multiple closes but are advised to use resting stop orders).

Commodity/Futures and options trading involve substantial risk.

posted by trader1s | 5:55 AM

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