THE JOSS REPORT
THE JOSS REPORT
WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
AUGUST 20, 2006
Available Exclusively Through ClearTrade Commodities
ClearTrade®
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- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) NASDAQ
3) WHEAT
4) FEEDER CATTLE
5) CORN
6) SOYBEANS
7) CRUDE OIL
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- CHART WATCH
8) JAPANESE YEN
9)GOLD
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- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
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- FUTURES WATCH
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WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
At ClearTrade®, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested The Joss Report research and may be interested in establishing an account with ClearTrade. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
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The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
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- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
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OCTOBER SUGAR (SBV6) / MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the 6/11/06 Joss Report I began discussing October Sugar.
This week I’ll begin by discussing March Sugar because of the rolling of volume from October.
On 7/10/06, October Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/14/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 16.32.
On 7/27/06, October Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 14.97.
On 8/02/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.84.
On 8/07/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.27.
On 8/11/06, October Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 13.87.
For Monday, October Sugar has a daily recommendation.
For Monday, March Sugar has a daily recommendation.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 7,466, posting a total open interest of 479,535 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The ‘Island reversal’ top trade risk was $1,489.60.
The ‘intra-month’ trade risk was $1,680.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#SUGAR
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Major resistance above the current market price is at the ‘intra-month’ sell signal of 14.97.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position in October Sugar at 16.32 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1650 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a close below 15.83 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1600 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 15.77 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1600 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 4) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a price advance to 15.60 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1600 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 5) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a monthly close below 14.97 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1500 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 6) Aggressive traders who established a short position on the daily sell signal at 14.84 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1450 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 7) Aggressive traders who established a short position on the ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.27 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1450 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 8) Aggressive traders who established a short position on the daily sell signal at 13.87 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1400 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 9) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 13.43 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1350 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00 or exit their put position.
# 10) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 12.97 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1300 puts were advised to exit their put position.
# 11) If October Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.56:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 13.32*.
Option traders who purchased October 1250 puts were advised to exit their put position.
Our objective of 12.02 was met on 8/17/06.
# 12) If March Sugar posts a price advance toward 15.17:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 16.10.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1300 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 13) If March Sugar posts a price advance toward 14.11:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 15.17.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1250 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 14) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.68:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 13.96.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 15) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.34:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 13.96.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 16) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.88:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.68.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our objective will be 11.56.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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SEPTEMBER NASDAQ 100 (NDU6)
In the Joss Report dated July 9th I added the September NASDAQ to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a weekly trade recommendation.
On 7/5/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily sell signal at 1592.50.
On 7/10/06, the NASDAQ posted a weekly sell signal at 1542.00.
On 7/12/06, the NASDAQ posted a close below June’s low of 1530.00.
On 8/14/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily buy signal at 1498.50.
On 8/16/06, the NASDAQ penetrated the weekly sell signal of 1542.50 (7/07/06).
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1591.50 and 1593.00.
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1542.00 and 1545.00.
Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as their trading vehicle.
For several weeks I noted to traders that on 8/04/06, the S&P 500 posted an unconfirmed monthly buy signal at 1289.60. Traders were advised to keep an eye open for either an S&P reversal down or a possible change of direction in the NASDAQ.
Last week I also noted that The Bollinger Bands on the NASDAQ are narrowing, indicating a major move was imminent.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -115, posting a total open interest of 58,943 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Mini NASDAQ futures last week increased by 403, posting a total open interest of 436,324 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed NASDAQ daily trade risk was $1,400.
The proposed Mini NASDAQ daily trade risk was $340.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to sit on the sidelines.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#NASDAQ
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For August, the September S&P 500 posted an unconfirmed monthly buy signal at 1289.60.
Traders were and continue to be advised to watch the progress of the S&P’s monthly buy recommendation.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a short position in the September NASDAQ at 1592.50, 1542.00, 1530.00 and 1491.00 have either previously exited their short positions or as of 8/16/06 have exited their short positions.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on the daily buy signal of 1498.50 are advised to move their stops below 1499.00.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on the penetration of 1542.50 are advised to move their stops below 1499.00.
# 4) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a close above 1558.00 are advised to move their stops below 1499.00
Our objective will be 1593.50.
# 5) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1612.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1525.00.
# 6) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1629.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1538.50.
# 7) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1646.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1591.50.
Our next objective will be 1664.00.
# 8) If the September NASDAQ does not post 1457.75 or 1603.75 by the close of business August 31st and the December NASDAQ does not post 1508.00 or 1621.00 by the close of business August 31st:
Very aggressive traders are advised to prepare for a potential monthly recommendation for September in the December NASDAQ.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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DECEMBER WHEAT (WZ6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added December Wheat to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a monthly recommendation for July.
In July, December Wheat did not post a monthly buy or sell recommendation.
This left December wheat with an explosive ‘coil’ trade for August and advised traders that a major move was imminent.
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/18/06, December Wheat posted our objective of 377.00.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for December Wheat was $725.
The proposed monthly trade risk for December Wheat in August was $1,675.
The proposed ‘intra-day’ trade risk for December Wheat was $500.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and continue to be advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -11,293, posting a total open interest of 456,086 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#WHEAT
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal at 410.75.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal at 403.25.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 391.75.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a short position at 410.75, 403.25 and 390.25 were advised to exit their positions at 377.00.
Option traders who purchased December 400 puts are advised to risk 20% of purchase price** or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased December 390 puts are advised to risk 20% of purchase price** or exit trade.
Our objective of 377.00 was met on 8/18/06.
# 2) If December Wheat posts a price advance toward 402.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 425.25*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 390 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If December Wheat posts a price advance toward 390.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 380 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 376.75:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 380 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 363.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 360 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 356.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 377.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 346.00.
# 7) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 346.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 364.00.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 291.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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DECEMBER CORN (CZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 7/30/06 I added December Corn to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a potential monthly recommendation for August.
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal.
Last week I advised traders not to dwell on the Ethanol equation that has encompassed the Corn market for many weeks. Traders should focus on the USDA Crop Report that stated Corn had the second highest ear count on Record.
Currently, the equation is Supply and Demand.
This product is for aggressive traders.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for December Corn was $462.50.
The proposed monthly trade risk for December Corn was $1,700.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -23,774, posting a total open interest of 1,342,389 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#CORN
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 260.75.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal at 250.75.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 250.75 or below are advised to place stops above 251.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 247.75 are advised to place stops above 251.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 241.25 are advised to place stops above 251.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 230 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Corn posts a price advance toward 241.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 251.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 240 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 233.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 251.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 230 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 225.75.
# 6) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 217.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 7) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 215.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 203.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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OCTOBER FEEDER CATTLE (FCV6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added October Feeder Cattle to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a monthly recommendation for August.
On 7/31/06 and 8/4/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal.
For next week, October Feeder Cattle has a weekly recommendation.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $1,025.
The proposed monthly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $2,275.
The proposed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle next week is $950.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 608, posting a total open interest of 32,759 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week October Feeder Cattle has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 117.70 – sell when trades 115.80.
On 7/31/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal at 114.50.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal at 116.10.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 114.50 are advised to move their stops to 115.80*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their long position or established a long position at 116.10 are advised to move their stops to 115.80*.
# 3) Aggressive traders who want to trade October Feeder Cattle are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
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NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (SX6)
In the Joss Report dated August 6th I added November Soybeans to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation.
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
Traders are advised that next week, December Soybean Meal has a weekly recommendation.
Traders are advised to watch the Meal trade signal because it may add more credence to the past Soybean sell signals or affect the direction to an upward bias.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for November Soybeans was $775.
The 8/10/06 proposed ‘intra-day trade risk for November Soybeans was $287.50.
The 8/16/06 proposed ‘intra-day’ trade risk for November Soybeans was $337.50.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 2,968, posting a total open interest of 343,399 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week December Meal has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 166.00 – sell when trades 161.30.
Traders are advised to watch this trade signal as it may determine if Soybean stops need to be adjusted.
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal at 592.75.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 576.25.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 566.25.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 592.75 or below are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 576.25 are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on a price advance to 573.00 are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on multiple closes below 570.00 are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 560 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective of 560.00 was met on 8/18/06.
# 5) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 554.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 540 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 545.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 542.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 512.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
OCTOBER CRUDE OIL (CLV6)
Last week I advised traders that although might be a little early, it never hurts to be prepared.
I listed several products to begin watching that included Crude Oil and Gold.
I also advised traders that world events may have a major impact on the products and traders were advised to keep a close eye on the charts.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, October Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal’.
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
Between 6/28/06 and 8/15/06, October Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.00.
October Crude Oil has two unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
The most recent unfilled price gap is between 72.40 and 72.95.
The seven-week trendline is at 72.70.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic E-Miny Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week increased by 45,001, posting a total open interest of 1,209,950 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for E-Miny Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -1,551, posting a total open interest of 39,362 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $1,960.
The proposed E-Miny Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $980.
The proposed Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $1,960.
The proposed E-Miny Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $980.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
On 8/16/06, October Crude Oil penetrated and closed below the ‘M’ formation at 74.00.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 75.40 or below are advised to place stops above 75.30*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 74.00 or below are advised to place stops above 75.30*.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 72.20 on a price advance toward 72.95 are advised to place stops for this trade above 74.00*.
# 5) If October Crude posts a price advance towards 72.95:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing stops for this trade above 74.00*.
# 6) If October Crude post multiple closes below 71.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 74.00*.
# 7) If October Crude post multiple closes below 70.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 72.95*.
# 8) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 69.10:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 71.00*.
Our objective will be 68.00.
As long as October Crude Oil continues to post closes on a weekly and monthly basis below 74.00:
Our mid-term objective will be 63.40.
Our long-term objective will be 56.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
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Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?
Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
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DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
This week I’m adding December Gold to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for September.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
ClearTrade Clients and subscribers will be informed of the potential monthly recommendation and risk via email on August 31st.
If you do not fit the potential risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 4,230, posting a total open interest of 331,327 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who want to trade December Gold are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
________________________________________
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN (JYZ6)
This week I’m adding the December Japanese Yen to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for September.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
ClearTrade Clients and subscribers will be informed of the potential monthly recommendation and risk via email on August 31st.
If you do not fit the potential risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 17,922, posting a total open interest of 216,492 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who want to trade the December Japanese Yen are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
________________________________________
CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AUGUST:
________________________________________
- S&P 500
- E-mini S&P
- BRITISH POUND
- US 30 YEAR BOND
- 10-YEAR NOTE
- SILVER
- WHEAT
- CORN
- FEEDER CATTLE
- LIVE CATTLE
- LEAN HOGS
________________________________________
FUTURE WATCH
________________________________________
Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in August for September. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business August 31st and sent via email for September.
________________________________________
- NASDAQ
- MINI NASDAQ
- GOLD
- COCOA
- PORK BELLIES
- SWISS FRANC
- JAPANESE YEN
- CANADIAN DOLLAR
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
'HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE "profit or losses" SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.'
WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
AUGUST 20, 2006
Available Exclusively Through ClearTrade Commodities
ClearTrade®
________________________________________
- TECH TALK
1) SUGAR
2) NASDAQ
3) WHEAT
4) FEEDER CATTLE
5) CORN
6) SOYBEANS
7) CRUDE OIL
________________________________________
- CHART WATCH
8) JAPANESE YEN
9)GOLD
________________________________________
- CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
________________________________________
- FUTURES WATCH
________________________________________
WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
At ClearTrade®, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested The Joss Report research and may be interested in establishing an account with ClearTrade. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
ClearTrade® Contact Phone Numbers
800-493-4444
773-561-9777
http://www.cleartrade.com
________________________________________
The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2006
http://www.cleartrade.com/?pageid=41737
________________________________________
- TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
OCTOBER SUGAR (SBV6) / MARCH SUGAR (SBH6)
In the 6/11/06 Joss Report I began discussing October Sugar.
This week I’ll begin by discussing March Sugar because of the rolling of volume from October.
On 7/10/06, October Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top.
On 7/14/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 16.32.
On 7/27/06, October Sugar posted a confirmed ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 14.97.
On 8/02/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.84.
On 8/07/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.27.
On 8/11/06, October Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 13.87.
For Monday, October Sugar has a daily recommendation.
For Monday, March Sugar has a daily recommendation.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 7,466, posting a total open interest of 479,535 contracts.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The ‘Island reversal’ top trade risk was $1,489.60.
The ‘intra-month’ trade risk was $1,680.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#SUGAR
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Major resistance above the current market price is at the ‘intra-month’ sell signal of 14.97.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position in October Sugar at 16.32 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1650 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a close below 15.83 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1600 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 15.77 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1600 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 4) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a price advance to 15.60 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1600 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 5) Aggressive traders who established a short position on a monthly close below 14.97 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1500 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 6) Aggressive traders who established a short position on the daily sell signal at 14.84 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1450 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 7) Aggressive traders who established a short position on the ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 14.27 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1450 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 8) Aggressive traders who established a short position on the daily sell signal at 13.87 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1400 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00.
# 9) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 13.43 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1350 puts were advised to purchase an October Sugar Future at 12.00 or exit their put position.
# 10) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 12.97 are advised to either place stops above 13.06* or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased October 1300 puts were advised to exit their put position.
# 11) If October Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.56:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 13.32*.
Option traders who purchased October 1250 puts were advised to exit their put position.
Our objective of 12.02 was met on 8/17/06.
# 12) If March Sugar posts a price advance toward 15.17:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 16.10.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1300 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 13) If March Sugar posts a price advance toward 14.11:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 15.17.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1250 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 14) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.68:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 13.96.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 15) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 12.34:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 13.96.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1200 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 16) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.88:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing stops above 12.68.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1150 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our objective will be 11.56.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
SEPTEMBER NASDAQ 100 (NDU6)
In the Joss Report dated July 9th I added the September NASDAQ to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a weekly trade recommendation.
On 7/5/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily sell signal at 1592.50.
On 7/10/06, the NASDAQ posted a weekly sell signal at 1542.00.
On 7/12/06, the NASDAQ posted a close below June’s low of 1530.00.
On 8/14/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily buy signal at 1498.50.
On 8/16/06, the NASDAQ penetrated the weekly sell signal of 1542.50 (7/07/06).
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1591.50 and 1593.00.
The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1542.00 and 1545.00.
Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as their trading vehicle.
For several weeks I noted to traders that on 8/04/06, the S&P 500 posted an unconfirmed monthly buy signal at 1289.60. Traders were advised to keep an eye open for either an S&P reversal down or a possible change of direction in the NASDAQ.
Last week I also noted that The Bollinger Bands on the NASDAQ are narrowing, indicating a major move was imminent.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -115, posting a total open interest of 58,943 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Mini NASDAQ futures last week increased by 403, posting a total open interest of 436,324 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed NASDAQ daily trade risk was $1,400.
The proposed Mini NASDAQ daily trade risk was $340.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to sit on the sidelines.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#NASDAQ
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For August, the September S&P 500 posted an unconfirmed monthly buy signal at 1289.60.
Traders were and continue to be advised to watch the progress of the S&P’s monthly buy recommendation.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a short position in the September NASDAQ at 1592.50, 1542.00, 1530.00 and 1491.00 have either previously exited their short positions or as of 8/16/06 have exited their short positions.
# 2) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on the daily buy signal of 1498.50 are advised to move their stops below 1499.00.
# 3) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on the penetration of 1542.50 are advised to move their stops below 1499.00.
# 4) Very aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a close above 1558.00 are advised to move their stops below 1499.00
Our objective will be 1593.50.
# 5) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1612.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1525.00.
# 6) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1629.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1538.50.
# 7) If the NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1646.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1591.50.
Our next objective will be 1664.00.
# 8) If the September NASDAQ does not post 1457.75 or 1603.75 by the close of business August 31st and the December NASDAQ does not post 1508.00 or 1621.00 by the close of business August 31st:
Very aggressive traders are advised to prepare for a potential monthly recommendation for September in the December NASDAQ.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER WHEAT (WZ6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added December Wheat to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a monthly recommendation for July.
In July, December Wheat did not post a monthly buy or sell recommendation.
This left December wheat with an explosive ‘coil’ trade for August and advised traders that a major move was imminent.
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/18/06, December Wheat posted our objective of 377.00.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for December Wheat was $725.
The proposed monthly trade risk for December Wheat in August was $1,675.
The proposed ‘intra-day’ trade risk for December Wheat was $500.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and continue to be advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -11,293, posting a total open interest of 456,086 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#WHEAT
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/07/06, December Wheat posted a weekly sell signal at 410.75.
On 8/08/06, December Wheat posted a monthly sell signal at 403.25.
On 8/16/06, December Wheat posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 391.75.
# 1) Very aggressive traders who established a short position at 410.75, 403.25 and 390.25 were advised to exit their positions at 377.00.
Option traders who purchased December 400 puts are advised to risk 20% of purchase price** or exit trade.
Option traders who purchased December 390 puts are advised to risk 20% of purchase price** or exit trade.
Our objective of 377.00 was met on 8/18/06.
# 2) If December Wheat posts a price advance toward 402.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 425.25*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 390 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If December Wheat posts a price advance toward 390.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 380 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 376.75:
Very aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 380 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 363.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 360 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 356.50:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 377.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 346.00.
# 7) If December Wheat posts multiple closes below 346.00:
Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 364.00.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 340 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 291.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
DECEMBER CORN (CZ6)
In the Joss Report dated 7/30/06 I added December Corn to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a potential monthly recommendation for August.
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal.
Last week I advised traders not to dwell on the Ethanol equation that has encompassed the Corn market for many weeks. Traders should focus on the USDA Crop Report that stated Corn had the second highest ear count on Record.
Currently, the equation is Supply and Demand.
This product is for aggressive traders.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for December Corn was $462.50.
The proposed monthly trade risk for December Corn was $1,700.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -23,774, posting a total open interest of 1,342,389 contracts.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_August_13__2006.htm#CORN
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/04/06, December Corn posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 260.75.
On 8/11/06, December Corn posted a monthly sell signal at 250.75.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 250.75 or below are advised to place stops above 251.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 247.75 are advised to place stops above 251.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 250 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who established a short position on multiple closes below 241.25 are advised to place stops above 251.00*.
Option traders who purchased December 230 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Corn posts a price advance toward 241.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 251.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 240 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 5) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 233.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 251.00*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 230 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 225.75.
# 6) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 217.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 7) If December Corn posts multiple closes below 215.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 237.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase December 220 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 203.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
OCTOBER FEEDER CATTLE (FCV6)
In the Joss Report dated July 30th I added October Feeder Cattle to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a monthly recommendation for August.
On 7/31/06 and 8/4/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal.
For next week, October Feeder Cattle has a weekly recommendation.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $1,025.
The proposed monthly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle was $2,275.
The proposed weekly trade risk for October Feeder Cattle next week is $950.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 608, posting a total open interest of 32,759 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week October Feeder Cattle has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 117.70 – sell when trades 115.80.
On 7/31/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a weekly buy signal at 114.50.
On 8/07/06, October Feeder Cattle posted a monthly buy signal at 116.10.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 114.50 are advised to move their stops to 115.80*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their long position or established a long position at 116.10 are advised to move their stops to 115.80*.
# 3) Aggressive traders who want to trade October Feeder Cattle are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (SX6)
In the Joss Report dated August 6th I added November Soybeans to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation.
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal.
Traders are advised that next week, December Soybean Meal has a weekly recommendation.
Traders are advised to watch the Meal trade signal because it may add more credence to the past Soybean sell signals or affect the direction to an upward bias.
This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed weekly trade risk for November Soybeans was $775.
The 8/10/06 proposed ‘intra-day trade risk for November Soybeans was $287.50.
The 8/16/06 proposed ‘intra-day’ trade risk for November Soybeans was $337.50.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 2,968, posting a total open interest of 343,399 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
For next week December Meal has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 166.00 – sell when trades 161.30.
Traders are advised to watch this trade signal as it may determine if Soybean stops need to be adjusted.
On 8/07/06, November Soybeans posted a weekly sell signal at 592.75.
On 8/10/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 576.25.
On 8/16/06, November Soybeans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 566.25.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 592.75 or below are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 576.25 are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 3) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on a price advance to 573.00 are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 580 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on multiple closes below 570.00 are advised to place stops above 598.00*.
Option traders who purchased November 560 puts are advised to risk 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective of 560.00 was met on 8/18/06.
# 5) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 554.25:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 540 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 6) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 545.50:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 7) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 542.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 573.50*.
Option traders are advised to purchase November 520 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 512.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
OCTOBER CRUDE OIL (CLV6)
Last week I advised traders that although might be a little early, it never hurts to be prepared.
I listed several products to begin watching that included Crude Oil and Gold.
I also advised traders that world events may have a major impact on the products and traders were advised to keep a close eye on the charts.
Between 8/07/06 and 8/09/06, October Crude Oil posted a bearish ‘island reversal’.
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
Between 6/28/06 and 8/15/06, October Crude Oil developed a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 74.00.
October Crude Oil has two unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
The most recent unfilled price gap is between 72.40 and 72.95.
The seven-week trendline is at 72.70.
Very aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the electronic E-Miny Crude Oil as their trading vehicle.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Crude Oil futures last week increased by 45,001, posting a total open interest of 1,209,950 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for E-Miny Crude Oil futures last week decreased by -1,551, posting a total open interest of 39,362 contracts.
This product is for very aggressive traders.
Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
The proposed Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $1,960.
The proposed E-Miny Crude ‘island reversal’ trade risk was $980.
The proposed Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $1,960.
The proposed E-Miny Crude seven-week trend penetration risk was $980.
If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were and are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
On 8/11/06, October Crude Oil penetrated a seven-week trendline at 75.40.
On 8/16/06, October Crude Oil penetrated and closed below the ‘M’ formation at 74.00.
# 1) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 75.40 or below are advised to place stops above 75.30*.
# 2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 74.00 or below are advised to place stops above 75.30*.
# 4) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 72.20 on a price advance toward 72.95 are advised to place stops for this trade above 74.00*.
# 5) If October Crude posts a price advance towards 72.95:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing stops for this trade above 74.00*.
# 6) If October Crude post multiple closes below 71.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 74.00*.
# 7) If October Crude post multiple closes below 70.00:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 72.95*.
# 8) If November Soybeans post multiple closes below 69.10:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 71.00*.
Our objective will be 68.00.
As long as October Crude Oil continues to post closes on a weekly and monthly basis below 74.00:
Our mid-term objective will be 63.40.
Our long-term objective will be 56.50.
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
*** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
________________________________________
CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
________________________________________
Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?
Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.
During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.
Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
________________________________________
DECEMBER GOLD (GCZ6)
This week I’m adding December Gold to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for September.
This product is for aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
ClearTrade Clients and subscribers will be informed of the potential monthly recommendation and risk via email on August 31st.
If you do not fit the potential risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 4,230, posting a total open interest of 331,327 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who want to trade December Gold are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
________________________________________
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN (JYZ6)
This week I’m adding the December Japanese Yen to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for September.
This product is for very aggressive traders only.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio.
ClearTrade Clients and subscribers will be informed of the potential monthly recommendation and risk via email on August 31st.
If you do not fit the potential risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 17,922, posting a total open interest of 216,492 contracts.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) Very aggressive traders who want to trade the December Japanese Yen are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module.’
________________________________________
CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AUGUST:
________________________________________
- S&P 500
- E-mini S&P
- BRITISH POUND
- US 30 YEAR BOND
- 10-YEAR NOTE
- SILVER
- WHEAT
- CORN
- FEEDER CATTLE
- LIVE CATTLE
- LEAN HOGS
________________________________________
FUTURE WATCH
________________________________________
Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in August for September. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business August 31st and sent via email for September.
________________________________________
- NASDAQ
- MINI NASDAQ
- GOLD
- COCOA
- PORK BELLIES
- SWISS FRANC
- JAPANESE YEN
- CANADIAN DOLLAR
________________________________________
NOTE:
If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.
ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444
________________________________________
* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.
________________________________________
ClearTrade®, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640
(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax
Mailto:research@cleartrade.com
http://www.cleartrade.com/
________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.
ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.
The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade ®,Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.
'HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE "profit or losses" SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.'
posted by trader1s | 5:35 PM
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